Skip to content

What is xG (expected goals)?

Expected goals (xG) rates the quality of each scoring chance from 0 to 1 — the probability an average player would score it — and a team's xG is the sum of those chances.

xG estimates how many goals the chances a team created 'should' have produced, independent of whether they went in. It's used to judge whether a result flattered a team: a side that wins 1–0 but is out-xG'd 0.4 to 2.1 rode their luck. A tap-in might be 0.8 xG; a speculative 30-yarder 0.03.

Worked example: A team takes five shots worth 0.1, 0.2, 0.05, 0.6 and 0.15 xG. Their total xG for the match is 1.1 — so scoring once would be about par.

See it in the numbers

Open the spreadsheet and watch this appear in live scores and standings — disguised as work.

What is xG (expected goals)? — Sports Glossary · Sport Spreadsheet